On Sunday night, the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects went to Avatar: Fire and Ash, cementing its historic status in film history. See the list of 2026 Oscar winners.
VFX wizards Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett accepted their trophies from presenters Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver, who were there to promote their new film, The Mandalorian & Grogu, which will likely be a Best Visual Effects Oscar contender next year. Grogu made a surprise appearance from the audience, where host Conan O’Brien made fun of him for not being able to clap.
James Cameron‘s third trip to Pandora is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Visual Effects. This category has a long history of rewarding movies that are cited in the Best Picture lineup, particularly since the field expanded beyond five films back in 2009. Only seven of the last 16 VFX winners have gone to a non-nominee in the top race, and only once has that winner defeated Best Picture nominees in the category. If Cameron’s science-fiction epic manages to win Best Visual Effects as expected on Sunday, it would become the second movie since Ex Machina in 2015 to triumph against multiple Best Picture nominees.
For over a decade, there has been a pattern in Best Visual Effects where voters have not only stuck with the Best Picture nominee in the list of five, but also any films that would resemble that description. Previous such victors include Inception, Hugo, Life of Pi, Gravity, 1917, and Dune.
Even in years where none of the nominees correlated with the Best Picture selection, voters always went with the film that had the most prestige. Movies like Interstellar and Tenet succeeded because Christopher Nolan was behind the camera and many were familiar with his sci-fi style; the same can be said for Blade Runner 2049 helmed Denis Villeneuve or First Man directed by Oscar winner Damien Chazelle.
Oscar voters have had an aversion to superhero films in this category; Marvel has never won a VFX statuette, despite multiple bids for MCU movies. The same goes for sequels: recent installments in the Star Wars, Planet of the Apes, Harry Potter, Transformers, Alien, King Kong, and Mission: Impossible franchises have yet to see an Oscar for their technical achievements over the last decade.
The only outliers are the aforementioned Blade Runner 2049 and Godzilla Minus One, the latter of which was an original film that had international appeal, despite technically being a part of the Godzilla saga. The only times sequels have won in this category was when they were a Best Picture nominee, like Dune: Part Two and Avatar: The Way of Water.
This makes the win for Ex Machina very unique and one of the biggest Oscar upsets, since it was up against three Best Picture nominees — The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, and The Martian — and the latter two were favored going into the ceremony. Avatar: Fire and Ash is competing this year with Sinners and F1 — both have made the Best Picture lineup — in addition to The Lost Bus and Jurassic World Rebirth.
Per the current Gold Derby odds, the epic has a 96 percent chance of winning, with Sinners at 3 percent, and the rest below 1 percent.
What works in Avatar’s favor is that the franchise is undefeated in Best Visual Effects, with the first film taking home the trophy for 2009 and the second winning three years ago, so it has history on its side as well as the win equity. This one of only two Oscar recognitions for the movie; it also picked up a surprise bid in Best Costume Design.
Despite Fire and Ash‘s front-runner status, a win for Sinners would align with the overall VFX pattern in recent years. Ryan Coogler‘s vampire musical has been on an upwards trajectory and, having set the all-time record for Academy Award nominations with 16, obviously has broad appeal among voters. A late surge could carry Sinners to wins in categories where it’s not favored, including VFX.
But it’s hard to ignore Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s groundbreaking technical achievements and its dominant seven wins at the Visual Effects Society Awards, a key precursor. We’ll see if the Na’vi can hold off a pack of blues-loving bloodsuckers come Sunday.
